Tuesday, February 10, 2015

On Apocalypse Watch

According to Steve Reitmeister of Zacks fame:

Even in the remotest corner of the world, everyone understands the law of gravity. When you drop something...it will fall to the ground.
Interestingly most investors don't really understand the natural gravity of stocks. In fact, they find every way possible to confuse matters with too much commentary, charts, and data.
Plain and simple, the gravity of stocks is to move up. Meaning that to move higher is their natural progression UNLESS an opposing force gets in their way.  - The Natural Gravity of the Stock Market
 I tend to agree with this statement. The nature of the opposing force can be debated, but I will not opine on this today. I'll just share a few graphs that show that the conditions for an upcoming apocalyptic opposing force are NOT in the cards yet.

Both the Advance Decline Index and the New High - New Low Index are in a clear uptrend making the case for a supportive market breadth and money flow.



Another market breadth indicator that also shows support is the McClellan Oscillator and its Summation Index:


If the current consolidation of the major indices was accompanied by a deteriorating market breadth, then odds would be in favor of the Financial Apocalypse being predicted by Austrian Economics. Currently, it seems that the monetary inflation is favoring asset prices. The "Don't Fight the Fed" mantra still applies, regardless of the rationality.

Sooner or later, the financial reckoning of the poor decision of central banks all over the world will defy the natural gravity of the stock market. But that apocalypse is not here yet.

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