Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Apocalypse Watch. Not Yet.

As an adherent of Austrian Economics, I do believe that the current Governmental Intervention model cannot be good in the long run. QE ad nauseum is just a patch on an old tire. It won't hold for long.

That said, it is still no time to panic, in my opinion. The short term solutions should be sufficient for a continued uptrend for the next 6 to 12 months, assuming no major unexpected events.The following graphs do show a solid financial system with low stress levels. There is plenty of liquidity for now to adjust quickly if something moves too fast like it has happened with the death of the CHF:EUR peg or the collapse of oil. Any other time, these changes would not have been shrugged off.




The Leading Index also shows that there are no major headwinds ahead.


Things to watch out for.


  1. Europe needs to deal with unemployment and Greece one way or another. Otherwise the Euro will continue down and disappear. Lets see what happens in the next 6 months.
  2. Oil markets should rebalance so the consolidation in the Shale plays finally happen and the specter of a junk bond crisis is finally put to bed.
  3. Geopolitics needs to be dealt with for overall stability.



Tuesday, March 3, 2015

A Pullback is in order and healthy.

Although the equity indexes have been making new record highs, they haven't been exactly explosive. Both the Market Breadth indicators and the volatility are showing signs that a short term and small pullback may be coming.
First lets look at the McClellan oscillator. The oscillator itself has been making lower highs while the NYSE composite has been making higher highs. This divergence indicates that the advance decline line has not been keeping up with stock prices. The oscillator is still positive just not as positive and supportive as I would like to see it.

Also, the fact that the VIX is low while the Ratio of Medium Term Volatility to Short Term Volatility (VXZ:VXX) is high point to hedging complacency. 



A pull back now would be healthy for the bull market as it would help establish a new level of support where equities would be attractive for new investors to come in and create a new demand zone.