Tuesday, March 3, 2015

A Pullback is in order and healthy.

Although the equity indexes have been making new record highs, they haven't been exactly explosive. Both the Market Breadth indicators and the volatility are showing signs that a short term and small pullback may be coming.
First lets look at the McClellan oscillator. The oscillator itself has been making lower highs while the NYSE composite has been making higher highs. This divergence indicates that the advance decline line has not been keeping up with stock prices. The oscillator is still positive just not as positive and supportive as I would like to see it.

Also, the fact that the VIX is low while the Ratio of Medium Term Volatility to Short Term Volatility (VXZ:VXX) is high point to hedging complacency. 



A pull back now would be healthy for the bull market as it would help establish a new level of support where equities would be attractive for new investors to come in and create a new demand zone.

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